The Research on "Bids for Connection" (86% Miss Rate)

A research-grounded look at how everyday "bids" predict whether a relationship lasts. The numbers are striking, and the practice to fix it is small enough to start tonight.

# The Research on "Bids for Connection" (and Why Most Couples Miss 86% of Them)

In one of the more striking findings from couples research, John Gottman's lab found that the small, easily-missed "bids for connection" couples make to each other every day were among the strongest predictors of whether the relationship would last six years later.

The numbers were not subtle. Couples who eventually divorced "turned toward" each other's bids about 33% of the time. Couples still happily together turned toward each other's bids about 86% of the time. The behaviour itself was small. The cumulative effect was enormous.

This is the second post in our research roundup series. It is about bids: what they are, why they are easy to miss, and the behavioural practice the data supports.

## What is a "bid"

A bid is any small attempt to get your partner's attention, affection, or engagement. The research catalogues hundreds of forms. Common examples:

- "Look at this." (showing a phone) - "Did you see that?" (about something out the window) - "I had the weirdest dream last night." - A hand on the shoulder while passing through the kitchen. - A sigh that is meant to be heard. - "Are you tired?"

What unites all of these is that they are small, easy to miss, and easy to dismiss as not really being requests at all. They are requests. They are requests for the partner to *turn toward* in some small way: a look up, a "yeah, what happened in the dream," a hand back on the partner's shoulder.

## What the responses are

The research codes responses into three categories.

**Turning toward.** Any acknowledgement that the bid landed. Eye contact. A short response. A hand back. Does not have to be elaborate.

**Turning away.** Failing to notice or acknowledge the bid. Often unintentional. Often "I'll be there in a minute" said while still looking at the screen.

**Turning against.** Responding with irritation. "Can you not interrupt me right now."

The single strongest finding: cumulative *turning toward* rate, more than any single behavioural variable, predicted long-term satisfaction and stability. Couples who consistently turned toward each other's bids built up what Gottman calls an "emotional bank account." Couples who consistently turned away depleted it, even without any visible conflict.

## Why most couples miss most bids

Two reasons, both supported in the data.

**1. Bids are designed to be deniable.** Most people make bids in low-stakes form so that if the partner does not respond, neither party has to acknowledge the rejection. "Look at this video" is easier to put out there than "I want your attention right now." The deniability protects the bidder. It also makes the bid easy to miss.

**2. Modern environments are bid-hostile.** Phones, screens, work-from-home, kids: all of it raises the activation energy of noticing a small bid. The data is suggestive, though not conclusive, that average turning-toward rates have declined since the pre-smartphone era.

## The behavioural practice

The research supports a simple, almost embarrassingly small practice that, repeated, moves the turning-toward ratio.

**Practice: spot one bid a day, on purpose.**

Once a day, deliberately notice one bid your partner makes. Acknowledge it. Out loud. With your full attention for the 15 seconds it takes. That is the entire practice.

For partners who want to go further, run a "bid count" exercise for one week. Each evening, separately, write down two bids you remember making and two bids you remember your partner making, and how each of you responded. The exercise is not about scoring each other. The exercise is about waking up the part of the brain that notices bids at all.

## What live AI sessions add

Bids do not happen in scheduled couples sessions. They happen in the kitchen at 7:42pm. So the role of any couples session, including a live AI session, is not to handle bids in the moment. It is to make both partners better at noticing them in the rest of the week.

In a PairLume session, this often looks like:

> "Both of you have described moments this week where the other one missed something you wanted noticed. Can each of you describe one specific bid you made this week that you would have liked turned toward? And one bid your partner made that you wish you had turned toward better?"

That single exchange, repeated weekly, has more cumulative effect than a hundred articles on "communication."

## The bottom line

Of all the things research suggests you can do to improve a long-term relationship, "notice your partner more" is the one with the most data behind it. Specifically, notice and respond to the small things they put out there to see if you are paying attention. Most of them are easy to miss. The cost of missing them is small in any single instance and very large in aggregate.

Source for further reading: Gottman, J. M., & DeClaire, J. (2001). *The Relationship Cure*. Crown.